BEHIND THE PLAY #83

Canada plays Bosnia in Toronto four days from now. We head into it with many injury and fitness concerns and a coach who has committed to a very structured style of play that makes that approach a bit more challenging and potentially limiting.

At the time of writing (Sunday evening…as usual), it is still unclear if Moise Bombito will still be in the squad or not. We do know that Marcelo Flores is out. I’m going to assume, for the purposes of this article, Jayden Nelson and Ralph Priso are going to be added to the squad to replace them.

It’s time: who starts and where for Canada?

Here’s the landscape in terms of who’s healthy and who is fighting to get game fit. Honestly though it’s a massive shit show that has thrown spanners, kitchen sinks, multiple obscenities and many sleepless nights at Jesse Marsch and his staff and their plans.

I have a strong bias, as a former centreback, to prioritize establishing a goalkeeper and a back four early so they get used to working and communicating with each other. Clearly in a national team this is much harder to do than within a club environment but we have taken a long time to settle on a goalkeeper because, quite frankly, both of their play this MLS season screamed “Pick James Pantemis!” Yet somehow he hasn’t even made the squad.

So now we have Max Crepeau playing behind a back four that will likely be Laryea, Corenlius, de Fougerolles (LDF) and Johnston. I’m fussy about centrebacks and LDF did something late in the Ireland game that, for me, is cause for serious concern as it shows either too much youthful enthusiasm or very poor decision-making.

Ireland broke down our right flank in transition. I can’t find video to link to what I think was Saliba tracking back on the Irish player with the ball with tons of real estate between the ball carrier and our box. For some reason, LDF started trying to manage that space, with Cornelius across from him. No real danger. Strangely then he launched forward to try a winner take all tackle on the ball carrier, leaving a massive gap behind him and probably causing Cornelius some panic. It was unnecessary and undisciplined. Nothing came of it in the end. That time. But be sure - other teams will see that impetuousness and try to tease LDF into positions like this that could easily lead to 1v1’s in behind him.

Nitpicking? No. CB’s are responsible for quick, effective decision-making that maintains structure and the line they are defending from. This was a clear break from that.

So the back four concerns me. Who knows when Phonzie will be fit to play. Who knows if Johnston holds up after barely playing for Celtic this past season (11 games total; 7 in SPL). Laryea has been good and hasn’t been goaded into cheap yellows but he will certainly be targeted for those. Cornelius has his work cut out for him with Bombito gone.

Midfield. This becomes a bit of a generational argument. Experience or current form? I have been a big Eustaquio guy going back to 2022 World Cup qualifying. Not so much Osorio and less and less as the years pile on. Marsch being a bit of tactical idealogue both limits his options now with injury concerns and also makes his teams a bit predictable. Personally, I’d like to see a 4-2-3-1 with Kone and Saliba sitting deeper and both having the option to go forward in attack. Ahead of them, I think Millar has claimed a starting role on the left with Jayden Nelson pushing him. Our strikers desperately need a midfielder who can link with them and that’s wither Stacks given a free role in a similar way that the Caps have done with Thomas Muller. On the right, despite being inconsistent it’s still Tajon that should start.

Up front, having more support from flank players who can provide wide service as well as a central mid playing just in behind him it will allow Jonathan David to stay high and DO WHAT HE DOES BEST: FINISH!

This whole having ‘JD dropping deep like Messi and now Kane do’ thing is robbing him of effectiveness. Let the man finish and be the focal point of our attack.

So that’s 1000 words on what Marsch is simply not going to do. Unless they have secretly been building in a Plan B to his hard press from a 4-4-2, one of Stacks, Kone or Saliba is going to come off. Likely Saliba.

Given that, here’s what I would pick for starters v Bosnia.

Here’s what I think Marsch will go with though.

And in a no injury, not-married-to-four-four-two, everyone available and game ready scenario, here’s what I’d love to see.

When Phonzie proves ready I’ll save you another graphic and just say in the prediction for what Marsch will go with vs Bosnia, put Phonzie in for Millar.

I did really think until recent months that Niko Sugar was trending towards being a striker and said a few times (probably here but definitely to friends) that I thought he had to start at the World Cup. Unfortunately, he’s faded and I think he’ll find his role will be as a sub for the most part.

I understand that anyone who has not been watching the Whitecaps will feel that starting Priso when he hasn’t even been named to the initial squad is a leap but that guy can play. His positional IQ is amazing and his confidence and timing in tackling as well as distribution warrants picking him ahead of both LDG and Alfie Jones. Just unfortunate that both Cornelius and Priso prefer being on the left hand side of a CB partnership. If they were to start together I’d probably let Priso have the left side and trust Cornelius’ experience to manage playing on the right.

Overall prediction for Canada? Second in the group to Switzerland. That would look like this. Draw v Bosnia, win v Qatar and draw v Swiss while Bosnia beat Qatar and lose to Swiss which means Swiss will not need to play for a win to take first in the group assuming they also beat Qatar). Pointless trying to guess how they’ll do after that when we have no idea who they’d play but it would mean they don’t get to play that Round of 32 in Vancouver (which I have tickets for).

Who your favourite predictors think will win the World Cup

The pundits, quants and supercomputers have all weighed in. Here’s a list of who they think will win the World Cup

I left Roy Keane’s prediction off the list because he picked “France, Spain or Argentina.” An a-typical hedge from the pundit who most leads with certainty in his opinions.

Worth noting that that Joachim Klement guy has guessed the last four winners correctly and AE Sports modelling has picked the last three.

Me? Head says France, heart says Spain. I think it’ll be France.

I’m going to try to do more frequent but shorter newsletters through the World Cup. We’ll see how that goes.