BEHIND THE PLAY #78

A concerned screed about the form and injuries facing Jesse Marsch as the deadline for final World Cup rosters gets closer as well as the potential down side of coaching a quality girls youth soccer team and the Whitecaps…love ‘em or they may leave you.

Men’s National Team - Injury and form concerns as the World Cup approaches

There’s 28 players being called in for the March games against Iceland and Tunisia in Toronto at the end of the month.

Through a combination of form, both good and bad, and injuries this groups has a last chance saloon kind of feel to it. There are many players here who are clearly on Jesse Marsch’s bubble and this is their final opportunity to impress sufficiently to make the final roster. In that camp from this list I’d include: Marcelo Flores*, Owen Goodman*, Junior Hoilett, Daniel Jebbison, Cyle Larin*, Jahkleele Marshall-Rutty, Liam Millar, Aribim Pepple, Ralph Priso*, Jacen Russell-Rowe and Joel Waterman. The asterisks indicate who I think will make the final roster from these players, even if I don’t necessarily agree.

Countries can carry a maximum roster of 26. Deadline for submission is May 25. There will then be two last games in Edmonton on June 1 (Uzbekistan) and June 5 (Ireland) before Canada kicks off its World Cup in Toronto on June 12 vs the winner or the UEFA play-in winner from Path A (potentially Italy) on June 12 at BMO Field in Toronto.

Its definitely worth considering who is not on this list. Those italicized are ones that seem to have less than a 50% chance of recovering in time to demonstrate they should be in contention for a spot:

• Alfie Jones (ankle injury)

• Sam Adekugbe (achilles injury)

• Alphonso Davies (hamstring)

• Jayden Nelson (hamstring/back)

• Jacob Shaffelburg (groin)

• Stephen Eustaquio (hematoma - leg)

• Promise David (hip tendon - unlikely to be back in time for World Cup but possible)

• James Pantemis (head injury)

It’s also important to note that while Alistair Johnston is listed as being in the squad he will only be training lightly and will not play in either game. Moise Bombito broke his leg in October and has only played two Ligue 1 games for Nice this season.

So here’s what Marsch is looking at 81 days before their first game in this World Cup.

A mess.

Not having anything close to an established starting eleven this close to the start is harrowing. This last window and the two games in June should be fine tuning and allowing players to get used to each other and how Jesse wants to set them up for the round robin games. Instead I’d guess we’ll get to see Ralph Priso make his national team debut after growing in leaps and bounds last season and so far this season as a centreback for the Vancouver Whitecaps. Niko Sugar will also likely see some time in the back four (though I prefer him in midfield). Same with Luc de Fougerolles.

Factor in that our top two keepers Dayne St Clair and Maxime Crepeau seem to have developed a deadly allergy to being the starting keeper for this team. Some really disconcerting performances by both of them through the start of the MLS season so far.

Marsch has a way of playing that has seen generally good results. Especially early on and through the 2024 Copa America. He is highly unlikely to deviate from his formation and style of play. While normally that would make it easier for him to select players based on the needs of that system, his pool is concernedly small and he made not end up having the horses for these courses. How he adapts or persists will be interesting to see.

To the point. Based on availability and form, here’s who my 26 would be followed by who I’d start in the first game.

GKm(3): St Clair, Crepeau, Pantemis (next in: Goodman)

Defenders (8): Davies, Johnston, Laryea, Bombito, Cornelius, de Fougerolles, Priso, Jones (next in: Waterman)

Mids (8): Choiniere, Buchanan, Eustaquio, Saliba, Sugar, Kone, Ahmed, Nelson (next in: Shaffelburg)

Forwards (5): David, Oluwaseyi, Larin, Flores, Jebbison (next in: Millar)

So that’s 24 selected and the last two would be from the “next in” lists based on positional needs dictated by form and any further injuries.

Then there’s the issue of Phonzie’s injuries and Jonathan David’s inconsistency at Juventus. Our two most renowned players are fighting through difficulties when you just really want to see them playing consistently. Five goals from an xG of 8.19 is a bad look.

Compared to last season with Lille…

Here’s what I think Marsch will go with in Canada’s World Cup opener in Toronto for a starting lineup.

This goes to the core of whether you put your best player where he can impact the game most or where he has shown he is personally strongest. Davies doesn’t seem to want to play left back when he plays with Canada but I think Marsch will keep him there.

Key assumption obviously is that Davies and Johnston are healthy. Laryea has impressed everyone, including me who thought for a long time he was a liability for the way he got goaded into confrontations and took unnecessary cards, but none more than Marsch who I think will have a hard time leaving him out of his staring eleven. Plus he has experience playing as a central midfielder.

Marsch likes a narrow 4-2-3-1 when defending. It’s been called a 4-2-2-2 but I’ve rarely seen it look that way. He’ll continue to have David drop into a false 9 position and Oluwaseyi would lead the line.

Davies, Laryea and Ahmed combining down the left would be a treat to see.

Here, though, is what I’d like to see…

Admittedly not too different from what I think Marsch will do but I think DSC will prevail in the battle to start in goal. His form at club level is more of a blip whereas Crepeau had lost his starting spot at Portland last season so it points to his form being less a blip and more de facto.

If Johnston isn’t healthy I’d put Sigur at RB and bring in Saliba. If Davies isn’t healthy I’d bring in Laryea. I think Kone offers a bit more in a double pivot than Laryea.

Larin has largely been dismissed by Canadian supporters the last year but he’s starting to regain his form at Southampton in the Championship. Four goals in his first eleven games. If he continues that form I think he starts. Beyond goals, these are not the worst stats to have over the last 365 days (compared to other strikers in similar leagues).

Bottom line. We have issues with two goalkeepers both going through a pretty rough patch right now. We have some of our best defenders injured or just coming off long term injuries. We have some very promising young midfielders who are in good form but can they do it at the highest level this summer? And lastly we have strikers who, like our keepers, are going through a rough patch that we absolutely need them to get out of.

Wild cards for this team? Flores clearly is one and could prove to be a great attacking option for us. If Ahmed can contribute for Canada the way he is at Norwich he could get a lot of attention this summer. Unfortunately, the ability for Davies to stay healthy is also a wild card; a troubling one.

To win the group and stay in Vancouver for the Round of 32 game, Canada realistically need to beat one of Switzerland and what will likely be Italy. A draw against the other and a multi-goal win against Qatar could be enough. A lot of pieces have to fall into place for that to happen. Keep in mind that Switzerland have qualified for the last five World Cups and advanced from their group four times including the last three tournaments.

We’ll need luck, strategy and players slipping into their best version of themselves for all three of these games.

The double edged sword of having a really good girls youth team

A friend sent me this recently. It’s from a stats service they use to track metrics they deem important. He coaches a very good girls team in the BC Soccer Premier League (BCSPL; the highest level of youth play here). They lost 1-0 despite having superior possession, passing and attacking play.

What they didn’t have was giants. Physical specimens who were bigger and could run much faster than the average girl that age and kick the ball further. A skill set that largely loses efficacy in a year or two as physical differences in the players mitigates in a post-puberty landscape.

His team was close to undefeated the previous season and lost a player to the Vancouver Rise FC Academy. So where they had been dominant in terms of results in the league the year before, they lost an impact players and are now in a group of four teams who are competitive with each other despite still being dominant in other metrics (as a second stats pack of another recent game affirmed). The hope of course is that parents and players recognize that progress can extend to more than just the standings and don’t flee for a team that is now above them.

We had the same thing happen with our strongest BCSPL girls team in another age group. We lost two to Rise FC and we drifted from losing the Provincial Cup (and qualifying for Nationals) on penalties to being a .500 team this season.

An even more extreme example of this happened to another club two years ago where I believe they lost six players to what was then the Whitecaps REX program from two of their girls teams. REX was the highest level of play for girls in the province at that time. The next few on the team looked around and realized they were no longer on a strong team and left for greener fields and easier wins. One team dissolved and the other was on the brink after being the most dominant team in their division for the previous two seasons.

That’s the landscape today. Frustrated players who often feel they need to scramble and get to a “better” team or they won’t be picked in the next selection process for higher levels. Ironically, if your team ends up imploding, and that happens far more with girls teams where there is a considerably smaller pool to reinforce rosters, the BCSPL rule is that you are fined $1000 if you do not enter a team in both age groups and genders.

So there’s your reward for developing a team that can play well enough to both win and have players picked for higher levels of play: potential dissolution and a fine.

Go watch the Whitecaps

They continue to be very good even if the last game vs San Jose on March 21 was a bit of a dud. If this version of the team cannot fill the lower bowl for every home game I have to wonder if we really deserve them.